Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 0.308040 0.361416 0.419548 0.487340 0.563995 0.647748 0.745938
2025-04-20 0.224596 0.291146 0.369521 0.467820 0.586931 0.725673 0.898516
2025-04-27 0.162626 0.233124 0.322836 0.443514 0.599511 0.792126 1.045406
2025-05-04 0.121309 0.192739 0.290989 0.432489 0.626984 0.880454 1.230496
2025-05-11 0.089839 0.159040 0.262170 0.421202 0.653283 0.971705 1.432044
2025-05-18 0.061594 0.123163 0.223394 0.389673 0.647931 1.021309 1.586328
2025-05-25 0.040738 0.093203 0.187148 0.355355 0.633671 1.057493 1.728006
2025-06-01 0.028735 0.075227 0.166576 0.342343 0.650564 1.142333 1.951463
2025-06-08 0.019905 0.060253 0.147629 0.328491 0.664396 1.225086 2.182734
2025-06-15 0.015033 0.052180 0.140119 0.334350 0.713494 1.371137 2.530096
2025-06-22 0.009765 0.040314 0.120985 0.313446 0.711462 1.432675 2.749088
2025-06-29 0.006473 0.031990 0.107147 0.300323 0.722123 1.517899 3.017566
2025-07-06 0.004090 0.024909 0.094166 0.287031 0.732842 1.609560 3.316189
2025-07-13 0.002821 0.020925 0.088148 0.288926 0.776109 1.768063 3.751422
2025-07-20 0.001828 0.016995 0.080527 0.284911 0.806438 1.906615 4.166532
2025-07-27 0.001230 0.014334 0.075880 0.287865 0.853820 2.085746 4.676780
2025-08-03 0.000800 0.011952 0.070988 0.288913 0.897445 2.263315 5.202521
2025-08-10 0.000427 0.008967 0.061629 0.273343 0.897365 2.349848 5.560341
2025-08-17 0.000203 0.006444 0.052166 0.253823 0.883145 2.404323 5.860407
2025-08-24 0.000108 0.005089 0.047418 0.249032 0.908020 2.549564 6.360870
2025-08-31 0.000053 0.003946 0.042714 0.242627 0.927316 2.684754 6.853321
2025-09-07 0.000031 0.003443 0.041720 0.250895 0.991728 2.934073 7.610990
2025-09-14 0.000011 0.002491 0.036163 0.237483 0.987720 3.018336 8.018268